It is well publicised that The National Health Service (NHS) and budget for social care is chronically stretched. The UK’s population is ageing rapidly, there will probably be 1.4 million people in the UK living with dementia by 2040 and there is a significant shortage of qualified healthcare professionals. There are simply not enough hands to provide an adequate service to all those who need it in health and elderly care in the future.
If we are to avoid bursting capacity, we need to think anew, and technology is clearly part of the solution. But where should the focus be for a digital transformation of elder care? In our opinion, where it is needed most.
Here are three reasons why we should be concerned about the future of health and elderly care:
Statistics and projections produced by Office for National Statistics (ONS) have long shown that the UK’s population is ageing. The latest projections show that over the next 15 years the size of the UK population aged 85 years and over is to increase from 1.6 million (2.5 percent of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5 percent).
People aged 75 and over could account for one in ten of the total population by 2029 and one in nine by 2037 – the same year that people of pension age are projected to account for one in five. The people aged 65 and over are forecasted to increase from around 14 million in 2025 to around 17 million in 2035, and by 2066 the total number of UK residents aged 65 years and over could be 20.4 million – up to 26 percent of the total population.
These demographic challenges, which describe our growing numbers and longer lives, are global. According to UN forecasts, the proportion of people over 65 will account for more than 16 percent of the world's population in 2050, compared to 9.7 percent in 2022.
There is another concern that casts a darker shadow over the future healthcare system in the UK: The exponential growth of elderly with dementia.
Dementia is a chronic and incurable condition caused by various diseases or injuries in the brain. The diseases develop over time and lead to increasing changes in the brain. In dementia, it is common to have memory problems, difficulties with language, orientation problems and various challenges with daily tasks.
According to the Prevalence and incidence – Dementia Statistics Hub, 982,000 people in the UK have dementia today, and by 2040 the number is predicted rise to 1.4 million. Much of the increase is due to the growing proportion of elderly people, but also to better methods and tools for identifying dementia diseases. Younger people can also be affected by dementia; it is estimated that around 42,000 people under the age of 65 have dementia in the UK today.
University College London made alarming findings when they mapped the health of the population in the UK. According to the new research, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, suggests that the number of people living with dementia could be as high as 1.7 million in 2040.
According to the Alzheimer’s Society, figures show that the costs of dementia diagnosis and care in the UK in 2024 was £42 billion, and this is forecast to rise to £90 billion by 2040.
According to Home Care Insight the care sector needs to recruit 128,000 new staff members every year to replace those that retire or leave and to meet increasing demand. Increased demand alone means that in 10 years’ time the sector needs 500,000 new members of staff.
To put this in context, the current workforce is 80 percent female. In 2017, 126,642 young women left secondary education. Assuming the care sector remains primarily staffed by women, it would need to recruit 102,000, or 81 percent, of those female school leavers every year to meet demand. Which is clearly not a possible solution.
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The forecasts for the increase in the number of elderly people and people with a dementia diagnosis in the future have been known for many years. The care sector and other healthcare providers must take action to meet these challenges.
«If we want to maintain a well-functioning health and elderly care system and ensure patient safety in the future, the care sector needs to invest in innovative care technology. This will help to improve the quality, efficiency and safety of health and elderly care for the benefit of staff, residents, relatives and society in general», says Torbjorn Aamodt (pictured), CEO of Sensio.
Tools such as digital supervision, various notification solutions and mobile safety alarms from Sensio have already been implemented in health and elderly care in over 230 local authorities in the Nordic region and also in the UK with great success.
«Our experience with care homes that have undergone a digital transformation is, among other things, that this can help reduce the number of night shifts and/or free up resources from night to day. The use of safety sensors and digital supervision in home care services can also help older people to live at home for longer, which saves resources by delaying the need for a place in a nursing home or care home», says Aamodt.
A study carried out by the Norwegian Smart Care Lab also shows that Sensio's care technology with the RoomMate safety sensor both simplifies and streamlines the working day for healthcare professionals considerably. Smarter staffing and better workflow for employees is both sustainable and cost-effective for the care sector.
«It is clear, that the introduction of care technology and digital transformation is part of the solution to the challenges in health and elderly care – and it is urgent for the care sector to introduce this. Technology should not be a substitute for care and supervision, but if you use technology correctly and work in this way, the care will be better», concludes Torbjorn Aamodt of Sensio.